Recent Trend

Are we marching towards the Recession 2020?

Lately, the popular topic in the social media and newspaper is regarding the political issue related to President Trump and his opposing parties.

As I can see the chain reaction taking place and things may have direct impact on the businesses and wall street.
However, the recession may appear before Election Day next year, it wouldn’t surprise if President Trump will take advantage if it for his re-electoral venture or 2nd coming of Trump.

The U.S. economy is wonderful and great as per President Trump, the trade wars are helping growth and that there’s nothing resembling a recession in sight.
Sure, the idea of the president of the United States trying to pitch an idea to a group of favorable economists to say what he wants to hear. But then again, who would have ever thought that the outcome will be in favor of Trump Empire.
President Trump’s not so friendly opposing opponent, who are hoping that the interest rate inversion means that a recession is in near future.

Many people might think that a recession consists of two to four straight quarters of decline in what economists call “real” gross domestic product. The fact is that the Trade tensions have created a doubt and lost corporate confidence and global growth to multi-year lows.
Global markets remain on edge with increasing stocks price and headlining in forward direction. On Tuesday, U.S. stocks jumped sharply and Gold retreated after the U.S. Trade Representative said additional tariffs on some Chinese goods, including cell phones and laptops, will be delayed to Dec. 15. This is a term created by economists to over shadow the coming recession.

It’s obvious that economists are terrible at predicting recessions: a tons of indefinite studies, along with a raft of anecdotal evidence, highlights a track record that is way more surprising and good having a good figure.
Economists claim they’re looking into the future from the past and present view. As a recession hits, the revisions go in one direction –  and that’s actually heading down. It’s only when the enormity of a recession becomes inescapable that the economists cling with it.
But the information gathered by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has a different version of it. Earlier in 2007 to 2008, economists had already begun to sense that something was heading to the days of dawn. They responded accordingly, consistently downgrading their predictions for future growth over the course of several quarters as the economy slipped into a recession.

The father of investment Mr. Warren Buffet -Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-B) chairman, In an interview with CNBC was asked if he sees a recession coming in 2020 and the Buffet in simple words gave an idea, “I just hope I see a lot of recessions.” Some of Berkshire Hathaway’s best investments have come during periods of economic turmoil. Berkshire Hathaway brought stakes in General Electric (GE) and Goldman Sachs (GS) during the 2007–2008 economic meltdown and he is hoping and waiting for another one for his next venture of investment.

As it is said, “better than you expect and worse than you even hoped.” However, according to the National Association of Business Economics (NABE) latest survey, which is based on 53 professional economic forecasters.
The recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy over the period of time, lasting more than a few months or even a year, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales and most importantly the increase in un-employment”

The previous Recession, which began in December 2007, ended in June 2009. During that time, the ruling authority was quite controversial in certain quarters. Barack Obama talked about how even though the committee had ruled that the U.S. economy had recovered, millions of people were still feeling the effect of a lot worse that happened during the recession period of 2007 to 2009.

It’s going to be a roller coaster ride to watch the current situation play out. Let’s say the economy is close to entering a recession or already in one — both of which are far from clear — it would take months or year of economic slowdown and only god knows when and how is will recover and what will be the price to be paid by US native peoples and also globally people will suffer with such changes.

I would like to express that it will be a drastic downward movement for couple of months or a year. The wall street will hit the rock bottom. The highs that we witnessed over the past year and going to be in history for a while. This is mainly due to the uncertainty of the election, trade war, and can also be because of a cyclic procedure. Globally will recover but as in the past, it will be a nearly unrecognizable image of what it was. Only the fundamentals of the economy will be in place, so, investors will be keeping an eye on the wall street for long-term investment. Many will be jobless and also fluctuating business will be nearly in closing procedure.

I personally don’t wish to hear “we’re in a recession” ruling before Election Day 2020.
I don’t know whether we’ll be in a recession when that day rolls around next year. But what I do know is that now, before the recession ride starts, it is the best time for us to take some preventive measured to control it from bringing much damage to the world economy.